Between Global Conflict Escalation, Humanitarian Crises, and the Imperative of a Preventive Political Culture
Abstract: Syria in 2026 stands at a complex transitional juncture, marked by the end of the Baʿathist regime, the emergence of new leadership, and a fragile process of institutional reconstruction. This contribution examines the transformation of state structures after more than a decade of conflict, focusing on the management of detainees linked to the Islamic State, the transfer of control in the country’s North-East, and the legal implications related to international humanitarian law and transnational criminal cooperation. The article highlights the tension between security imperatives and the protection of fundamental guarantees, questioning the role of the international community in regional stabilization. Alongside persistent criticalities, it explores signs of social and cultural resilience that outline a possible trajectory of reconciliation and reconstruction within a redefined Middle Eastern order.
Keywords: #Syria #PoliticalTransition #InternationalLaw #ForeignFighters #RegionalSecurity #ISIS #PostWarReconstruction #InternationalCooperation #NorthEastSyria #Governance #SocialResilience #Geopolitics #PaolaLaSalvia #EthicaSocietas #EthicaSocietasMagazine #ScientificJournal #SocialSciences #HumanSciences #ethicasocietasupli
Paola La Salvia: former lawyer, senior officer of the Guardia di Finanza, lecturer in economic and legal subjects, expert in anti-money laundering and organized crime, Knight of the Order of Merit of the Italian Republic, author of several works; her most recent publication is I malacarni, focused on mafia-type organized crime. LinkedIn Profile.
Genesis of the Conflict and Transformation of the State Structure
To look at Syria today means confronting the image of a profoundly transformed State. Before 2011, power was concentrated in the hands of Bashar al-Assad, who succeeded his father Hafez al-Assad in 2000 at the head of a Republic formally pluralist but substantively dominated by the Baʿath Party. The system rested on marked political centralization, control of information, and repression of dissent, within a delicate balance between a Sunni majority and the predominance of the Alawite elite within the security apparatus.
The protests of 2011, set within the broader context of the so-called “Arab Spring,” rapidly escalated into a non-international armed conflict under international humanitarian law¹. Over more than a decade, the war has produced hundreds of thousands of victims, millions of displaced persons, and unprecedented infrastructural devastation. The intervention of regional and global actors transformed the conflict into a systemic crisis, reshaping the geopolitical balance of the entire Middle East.
In 2024, the collapse of the previous power structure and the subsequent appointment, in March 2025, of Ahmed al-Sharaa as interim president opened a five-year transitional phase (2025–2030), formalized through a Provisional Constitutional Declaration. The new arrangement grants broad powers to the executive, outlining a strong presidential model in a context still marked by institutional fragility.
Political Transition and Security in North-East Syria
The transfer of control from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to governmental authorities in several areas of the North-East represents a structural shift in internal balances. This transition is not merely administrative but entails a redefinition of chains of command, relations with foreign partners, and territorial security mechanisms.
In post-conflict contexts, administrative continuity and the stability of security forces are essential to prevent operational vacuums capable of generating instability². Syria in 2026 faces this challenge within a framework still characterized by local militias, ethnic tensions, and sectarian rivalries.
Alawite, Druze, Christian, and Kurdish communities observe the evolution of the new state structure with caution, fearing marginalization or imbalances in political representation. The risk of an incomplete transition intertwines with the need to ensure inclusiveness and national reconciliation.
Management of Detainees Linked to the Islamic State and Legal Profiles
One of the most sensitive dossiers concerns the management of camps hosting individuals affiliated with or suspected of links to the Islamic State. The al-Hol camp, in Hasakah province, served for years as the main detention center for women and minors following ISIS’s territorial defeat in 2019. The transfer of control to governmental authorities and the progressive reduction in the number of detainees have raised legal and security-related concerns.
The detention of foreign fighters raises significant issues under international humanitarian law, international criminal law, and procedural guarantees³. The absence of effective coordination among detainees’ States of origin complicates repatriation processes and risks turning such facilities into indefinite detention centers, with potential violations of the principles enshrined in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights⁴.
The transfer to Iraq of thousands of suspected fighters, justified as a preventive measure, further raises concerns regarding due process guarantees and detention conditions. In this context, balancing security imperatives with respect for fundamental guarantees represents a crucial turning point in the transitional phase.
International Cooperation and Transnational Terrorist Risk
The concrete risk of dispersion of radicalized individuals beyond regional borders requires strengthened international cooperation. Intelligence sharing, coordinated identification and repatriation procedures, and effective border control constitute indispensable tools to prevent the reorganization of clandestine networks.
United Nations Security Council Resolutions concerning foreign fighters⁵ call upon States to engage jointly in preventing terrorism and countering radicalization. In the absence of a coherent multilateral strategy, the gradual emptying of detention camps may become a factor of regional instability.
Attacks against institutional figures, including attempted assaults against the new leadership, demonstrate the persistence of the threat and the fragility of internal stability.
Reconstruction, Diplomatic Legitimization, and Social Resilience
Alongside the security dimension, the transitional Government seeks diplomatic recognition and access to international reconstruction programs. Syria emerges as a geopolitical laboratory in which security, diplomacy, and economics are inextricably intertwined.
Despite persistent criticalities, signs of resilience are visible: the reopening of schools and markets, cultural initiatives, women’s cooperatives, and educational programs. Cultural events and renewed international participation signal an attempt to transform the memory of war into a space for collective processing and renewal.
Social reconciliation, however, remains a complex process, hindered by traumatic memories and identity fractures. The construction of a shared sense of belonging constitutes a necessary condition for consolidating state authority and overcoming the logic of militias.
Conclusions
Syria in 2026 stands in a precarious balance between aspirations for stability and persistent vulnerabilities. The management of the transition will determine not only the State’s ability to consolidate its authority, but also the configuration of regional balances in the fight against terrorism.
Respect for legal guarantees, institutional inclusiveness, and international cooperation constitute indispensable pillars of sustainable reconstruction. Absent these conditions, the risk is that of a merely apparent stabilization, incapable of addressing the root causes of the conflict.
NOTES
[1] Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 and Additional Protocols of 1977.
[2] United Nations, Report of the Secretary-General on Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace, A/74/976–S/2020/773 (2020).
[3] Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, 17 July 1998.
[4] International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, 1966.
[5] United Nations Security Council, Resolution 2178 (2014) and Resolution 2396 (2017).
Essential Bibliography
Bauman, Z. (2006). Liquid fear. Polity Press.
Berti, B., & Guzansky, Y. (2014). The Syrian war: Between justice and political realism. Routledge.
Gordon, N., & Perugini, N. (2020). Human shields: A history of people in the line of fire. University of California Press.
International Crisis Group. (2023). Syria’s fragile equilibrium: Regional dynamics and internal fragmentation. ICG Report.
United Nations. (2014). Security Council Resolution 2178. United Nations.
United Nations. (2017). Security Council Resolution 2396. United Nations.
United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. (1966). International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. (2018). Handbook on children recruited and exploited by terrorist and violent extremist groups. UNODC.
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