HORMUZ: THE INVISIBLE FRONT OF EUROPEAN SECURITY - Katiuscia Vella - ETHICA SOCIETAS-Rivista di scienze umane e sociali

Between external dependence and industrial rigidity, a systemic risk to therapeutic continuity in Europe

Abstract: Growing instability in the Strait of Hormuz represents a threat not only to global energy balances but also to European pharmaceutical security. This article examines how geopolitical tensions affect the pharmaceutical supply chain, highlighting structural vulnerabilities linked to external dependency, regulatory rigidity, and the complexity of global supply chains. From a systemic perspective, it shows how prolonged disruptions could generate significant effects within a few months, transforming a regional crisis into a broader healthcare and economic challenge for Europe.

Keywords: #StraitOfHormuz #PharmaceuticalSecurity #SupplyChain #ExternalDependency #Resilience #Geopolitics #PublicHealth #BusinessInterruption #PharmaceuticalIndustry #StrategicAutonomy #KatiusciaVella #ethicasocietas #ethicasocietasjournal #scientificjournal #humansciences #socialsciences #ethicasocietasupli

versione italiana

Beyond Energy: The Strategic Role of the Strait of Hormuz

For years, the Strait of Hormuz has been considered primarily as a variable in global energy balances. However, the current crisis demonstrates that it represents a crucial node in an interconnected system, where European pharmaceutical security is also exposed to geopolitical dynamics.

This shift in meaning requires a change in perspective: from an energy infrastructure to a strategic hub within the global supply chain.

The Invisible Nature of Contemporary Crises

Modern crises rarely manifest through sudden disruptions. Instead, they emerge through gradual processes: logistical delays, rising costs, and operational rigidities.

In the pharmaceutical supply chain, these dynamics are particularly critical, as the system relies on a fragile balance between procurement, production, and distribution.

Over the past decades, Europe has outsourced a significant share of the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and chemical intermediates. This choice, driven by economic efficiency, has led to strong external dependency.

Today, a large portion of medicines—especially generics—depends on inputs from non-EU countries. This makes production continuity vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and logistical disruptions.

The Time Factor

According to sector analyses, a prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could produce tangible effects within four to six months.

This would not lead to an immediate collapse, but rather to a progressive deterioration of the supply chain, with impacts on availability, costs, and production timelines.

Unlike other sectors, the pharmaceutical industry has limited flexibility. Replacing suppliers requires lengthy validation and regulatory approval processes.

This rigidity amplifies the risk of business interruption, where even minor delays in supplies can halt entire production cycles.

Economic Impacts and Sustainability

Geopolitical tensions affect energy and logistics costs. However, in the pharmaceutical sector, the ability to transfer these costs is limited due to regulated pricing systems.

This results in margin compression, putting at risk the sustainability of essential but low-value medicines.

From Economic Security to Public Health Security

Continuity in the availability of medicines is a fundamental component of public health security.

In this context, the pharmaceutical supply chain becomes a strategic element of national security, going beyond the traditional distinction between economic and healthcare domains.

European initiatives, such as strengthening strategic autonomy and reducing critical dependencies, aim to build greater resilience.

However, these are long-term processes that require strategic vision and coordination between national and European levels.

Conclusion: From Reaction to Prevention

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz highlights the fragility of a global model that has prioritized efficiency over resilience.

Europe now faces a choice: continue with a reactive approach or develop a preventive strategy capable of ensuring therapeutic continuity and protecting citizens’ health.

If the crisis persists, its effects will be gradual but inevitable, reflecting structural vulnerabilities accumulated over time.

REFERENCES

European Commission (2023), Pharmaceutical Strategy for Europe
OECD (2022), Global Supply Chains: Efficiency and Risks in Strategic Sectors
World Health Organization (2021), Access to Medicines and Supply Chain Resilience
European Medicines Agency (EMA), Shortages of Medicines Reports
McKinsey & Company (2023), Risk, Resilience, and Rebalancing in Global Value Chains
World Bank (2022), Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Trade