THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND SYSTEMIC WAR - Cristina Di Silvio - ETHICA SOCIETAS-Rivista di scienze umane e sociali

Energy, Algorithms, and Deterrence in the Emerging Strategic Competition between Iran, Israel, and the United States

Abstract: The military escalation between Iran, Israel, and the United States is increasingly assuming the characteristics of a systemic confrontation, in which global energy security, technological innovation, and the reconfiguration of geopolitical balances are deeply interconnected. The Persian Gulf, and particularly the Strait of Hormuz, represents one of the main nodes of contemporary strategic competition, as approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this critical choke point. This contribution examines the transformation of the conflict from a regional crisis into a laboratory of contemporary warfare, highlighting the role of energy deterrence, anti-access and area denial doctrines, the vulnerability of critical infrastructures, and the growing integration of advanced technologies within military systems. Recent developments—including mine-laying operations in the strait, missile attacks in the vicinity of Jerusalem, and bombardments against underground Iranian nuclear infrastructures—indicate that the crisis affects not only the security of the Middle East but the entire architecture of international stability. From this perspective, the Persian Gulf emerges as one of the main arenas of global geopolitical competition, where energy, information, and military power converge in redefining the dynamics of strategic deterrence in the twenty-first century.

Keywords: #StraitOfHormuz #PersianGulf #SystemicWar #EnergyDeterrence #Geopolitics #Iran #Israel #UnitedStates #Algorithms #GlobalSecurity #AntiAccess #AreaDenial #CristinaDiSilvio #EthicaSocietas #EthicaSocietasJournal #ScientificJournal #SocialSciences #ethicasocietasupli

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The Strategic Transformation of the Conflict

The confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States represents one of the most evident manifestations of the transformation of warfare in the twenty-first century. The operational dynamics observed in recent months indicate that the crisis is evolving from a traditional regional competition into a form of systemic conflict, in which the military dimension, energy security, and technological dominance are deeply interconnected. The Persian Gulf has for more than three decades constituted one of the principal laboratories of asymmetric warfare. Within this strategic environment, Iran has progressively developed a military structure designed to compensate for Western technological superiority through operational saturation, platform dispersion, and the exploitation of the structural vulnerabilities of the global economy.

The core of this strategic architecture lies in the potential control of the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, through which approximately twenty percent of the world’s energy supply transits daily. The centrality of this energy choke point makes the region one of the most sensitive nodes of the global economy and explains why any military tension in the area produces immediate effects on international energy markets. Within this context, Iran’s military strategy is based on a doctrine of anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) designed to limit the operational freedom of Western fleets and to increase the strategic cost of any military intervention.

This defensive architecture integrates coastal anti-ship missile systems, mobile ballistic missile batteries, distributed radar networks, naval mines, and a fleet of fast attack craft belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. These units operate according to principles of operational saturation and coordinated attacks launched simultaneously from multiple directions, capable of putting pressure even on technologically superior naval platforms. The strategic objective is not to achieve conventional naval superiority, but rather to transform the Persian Gulf into a high-risk operational environment, in which the economic and military cost of any Western intervention becomes extremely high.

Recent developments indicate the practical implementation of this doctrine. Naval mining operations in the waters of the strait have been reported with the objective of disrupting commercial traffic and increasing the operational cost of naval missions tasked with protecting global energy routes. Even a limited number of mines can produce significant strategic effects, since the mere risk of detonation is sufficient to compel shipping companies and international insurers to suspend or divert commercial routes, thereby generating an immediate shock in global energy markets.

The Symbolic and Identity Dimension of the Conflict

Alongside the naval and energy dimensions, the conflict has also assumed a strong symbolic and identity-based dimension. A missile launched by Iran struck an area only a few hundred meters from the Old City of Jerusalem, near sacred sites of the three major monotheistic religions. The impact near locations such as the Western Wall, the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre represents not merely a military event but a gesture with a profound political and symbolic significance.

In contexts already characterized by extremely high tensions, incidents of this nature possess a powerful capacity to amplify regional mobilization dynamics. As a result, the geopolitical conflict risks transforming into a confrontation perceived also in identity-based, religious, and civilizational terms, with effects that transcend the strictly military dimension and influence the collective perceptions of the societies involved. Contemporary warfare unfolds simultaneously across multiple levels: military, economic, informational, and symbolic.

Strategic Infrastructures and Technological Warfare

Another fundamental dimension of the escalation concerns attacks against Iran’s nuclear program. New satellite imagery of the Parchin Military Complex reveals impact craters arranged according to a pattern characteristic of operations targeting hardened underground infrastructures. This configuration appears consistent with the use of high-penetration bunker-busting munitions, such as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, one of the most powerful conventional weapons developed by the United States.

This type of weapon, typically deployed by strategic bombers such as the B-2 Spirit, is designed to destroy underground structures protected by thick layers of concrete and rock. The repetition of operational patterns similar to those observed at other nuclear facilities suggests the existence of a systematic military campaign aimed at degrading Iran’s underground nuclear infrastructure and significantly slowing its technological capabilities.

The crisis in the Persian Gulf demonstrates that contemporary warfare no longer unfolds exclusively on the plane of conventional military conflict, but within a far broader strategic ecosystem in which energy infrastructures, technological networks, informational capabilities, and global commercial flows become central elements of competition among powers.

Energy, Algorithms, and the Redefinition of Deterrence

In the twenty-first century, deterrence no longer depends solely on traditional military superiority, but on the capacity to control the critical nodes of the global economy and to integrate military power, technological dominance, and energy resilience within a single strategic architecture. Within this framework, algorithms, advanced surveillance systems, and data analysis platforms are acquiring increasing importance within military command and control systems.

The Persian Gulf now represents one of the principal laboratories of this transformation. Should the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz evolve into a prolonged closure or escalate into direct confrontation between major regional and global powers, the consequences would extend far beyond the security of the Middle East, affecting the entire international economic system.

From this perspective, the control of energy choke points, the integration of advanced technologies into military systems, and the capacity to influence the flows of the global economy are redefining the very foundations of international security and strategic deterrence in the twenty-first century.