GUANTÁNAMO AND THE MILITARY DIPLOMACY OF DETERRENCE - Cristina Di Silvio - ETHICA SOCIETAS-Rivista di scienze umane e sociali

Strategic communication and risk management in Cuban-American relations in a context of persistent strategic competition

Abstract: The recent meeting at the Guantánamo Naval Base between representatives of the United States Armed Forces and the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces confirms the persistence of technical and military communication channels between two countries whose political relations continue to be marked by profound disagreements. While not signaling a process of diplomatic normalization, the meeting highlights the role of military diplomacy as a mechanism for risk management and escalation prevention in a strategically sensitive environment. This article examines the geopolitical significance of the initiative, the role of the Guantánamo Naval Base, and its implications for contemporary Caribbean security dynamics.

Keywords: #Guantánamo #Cuba #UnitedStates #MilitaryDiplomacy #RegionalSecurity #CaribbeanGeopolitics #Deterrence #StrategicCommunication #RiskManagement #DefenceDiplomacy #ConfidenceBuildingMeasures #StrategicStability #CristinaDiSilvio #EthicaSocietas #EthicaSocietasJournal #ScientificJournal #SocialSciences #ethicasocietasupli

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Introduction

Within the contemporary international system, the maintenance of communication channels between politically opposed actors remains one of the most effective instruments for crisis prevention. It is within this framework that the recent meeting at the Guantánamo Naval Base between senior military representatives of the United States and Cuba should be understood.

According to information released by the relevant authorities and reported by international news agencies, the discussions involved the commander of the United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) and representatives of the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR), focusing on operational matters related to security in the vicinity of the naval base.¹ Although essentially technical in nature, the meeting possesses broader strategic significance, confirming the importance of military communication as a stabilizing mechanism in contexts characterized by enduring political tensions.

Guantánamo: A Permanent Geopolitical Frontier

The Guantánamo Naval Base remains one of the most enduring and controversial symbols of U.S.–Cuban relations. Its existence stems from agreements signed in 1903 following the Spanish–American War, granting the United States control over the territory through a lease arrangement that Washington considers valid while Havana continues to contest.²

From the U.S. perspective, the base constitutes a strategic military asset supporting operations and maritime security throughout the Caribbean basin. From the Cuban perspective, however, it remains an unresolved issue of national sovereignty and a legacy of historical American influence over the island.³

This dual interpretation has transformed Guantánamo into a permanent geopolitical frontier, where the physical proximity of military forces belonging to mutually distrustful states necessitates the maintenance of direct communication mechanisms.

Military Diplomacy and Confidence-Building Measures

International relations scholarship has long emphasized the value of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) as instruments designed to reduce uncertainty and minimize the risk of misperception among potentially hostile actors.⁴

In the case of U.S.–Cuban relations, military contacts serve precisely this purpose. They do not imply political convergence nor alter the strategic positions of either side; rather, they provide a minimum level of operational predictability.

The literature on defence diplomacy defines such practices as forms of military cooperation and communication aimed at conflict prevention and crisis management.⁵

In situations of prolonged tension, these mechanisms often prove more resilient than traditional diplomatic channels. The Guantánamo meeting can therefore be interpreted as an example of pragmatic military diplomacy, designed to preserve local stability and prevent incidents in one of the most strategically sensitive areas of the Western Hemisphere.

Regional Dynamics and Emerging Strategic Competition

The meeting takes place amid renewed U.S. attention toward Latin America and the Caribbean. In recent years, Washington has increasingly reassessed the strategic relevance of the region within the broader framework of global great-power competition.⁶

At the same time, Cuba continues to face one of the most severe economic crises in its recent history. Energy shortages, declining productivity, inflationary pressures, shortages of essential goods, and rising emigration have intensified the island’s structural vulnerabilities.⁷

These developments coincide with the growing presence of extra-regional actors, particularly China and Russia, whose economic and political engagement in the Caribbean has become a subject of increasing concern for U.S. policymakers.⁸

Consequently, regional stability now carries implications extending far beyond bilateral relations, becoming part of a broader geopolitical competition shaping the contemporary international order.

Strategic Stability and Operational Communication

The Guantánamo meeting should not be interpreted as the beginning of a broader political rapprochement between Washington and Havana. Significant disagreements remain regarding economic sanctions, human rights, migration policies, and Cuba’s regional role.

Nevertheless, the event confirms one of the central insights of strategic studies: communication itself constitutes a critical component of deterrence and risk management.⁹

Even in the absence of political trust, regular contacts between technical and military institutions help reduce the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation. In this regard, military diplomacy continues to perform an essential stabilizing function in contexts characterized by persistent rivalry and geographical proximity.

Strategic Perspectives

The Guantánamo meeting illustrates how technical cooperation can endure even amid profound political disagreements.

Without altering the existing diplomatic landscape, the maintenance of military communication channels between the United States and Cuba contributes to regional security management and to the reduction of risks associated with one of the most sensitive areas of the American continent.

In an era marked by intensifying geopolitical competition and persistent economic and political fragilities throughout the Caribbean, such communication mechanisms remain essential instruments for preserving strategic stability and enhancing predictability in bilateral relations.

The significance of these contacts extends beyond the immediate operational sphere. They represent a practical acknowledgment that even adversarial states share a common interest in avoiding incidents, reducing uncertainty, and maintaining a minimum degree of institutional dialogue. In this sense, military diplomacy remains an indispensable component of contemporary security governance.

NOTES

¹ United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), official communications regarding regional security cooperation and hemispheric security initiatives.

² Agreement Between the United States and Cuba for the Lease of Lands for Coaling and Naval Stations, 1903.

³ Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Cuba (MINREX), official documentation concerning the Guantánamo Naval Base.

⁴ United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), Confidence-Building Measures in International Relations.

⁵ Cottey, A., & Forster, A., Reshaping Defence Diplomacy: New Roles for Military Cooperation and Assistance, Oxford University Press, 2004.

⁶ Congressional Research Service, Latin America and the Caribbean: U.S. Policy and Key Issues.

⁷ Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), annual economic assessments of Cuba.

⁸ Berg, R. C., China’s Strategic Interests in Latin America and the Caribbean, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

⁹ Schelling, T. C., Arms and Influence, Yale University Press, 1966.

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